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Old 10-19-2017, 23:51   #1
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Giants Need Matt Cain and Vice Versa

Matt Cain is a free agent at the end of this year. Hes been in serious negotiations using the Giants for months on a new contract. Hes set an Opening Day deadline for those negotiations. Heres why Cain and the Giants want to get an offer done now.
Cain debuted using the Giants late in 2005 but pitched Amini Silatolu Jersey his first full season the year after. By 2007, he was pitching within the shadow of teammate Tim Lincecum and has done this ever since. But Cain is fourteenth in starting pitcher WAR since 2007 (20 WAR), and it is tied with Cole Hamels for sixteenth in starter WAR over the last three seasons (12.3 WAR). Lincecums been better, but Cain might have been the ace on many good teams during the last 5 years.
Cain is (affectionately) referred to as sabermatricians nightmare because hes held batters to some lower-than-expected BABIP every year and has work home run/fly ball ratio that even Roy Halladay envies. But his other peripherals happen to be strong and, most importantly, moving in the right direction.
Cains strikeout-to-walk ratio hovered around 2.0 his first five years but has steadily climbed, averaging 2.7 the final two seasons, mostly due to a sharply declining walk rate. Thats led to a drop in WHIP, which sat at 1.08 in 2010 and 2011. But perhaps the most encouraging development for Cain has been his transition from an extreme fly-ball pitcher to some more balanced ground-ball/fly-ball one.
Cain is often compared to Zack Greinke and Hamels and the comparisons work, to some extent. During the last three seasons, Greinkes been much more of a strikeout pitcher than Cain and it has had a higher-than-expected BABIP. Hamels falls between the two. The most important similarity among Greinke, Hamels and Cain is they all will be free agents at the end of this season.
Which brings us to Cains contract negotiations using the Giants.
If the Giants dont reach an offer with Cain, the 2013 starting rotation will contain Lincecum (signed through 2013), Barry Zito (mercifully within the last year of his contract), super-stud Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and, likely, prospect Erik Surkamp. Other expected free agent pitchers dont make a large amount of sense for that Giants in 2013 except for, perhaps, Brandon McCarthy, whos turned his career around using the As. Obviously, when the Giants cant reach an offer with Cain, they are unlikely to go after Greinke or Hamels, who'll cost more.
In the 2014, the rotation will contain Madison Bumgarner and four question marks. After trading Zack Wheeler towards the Mets last season for Carlos Beltran, the Giants starting pitching depth long the strength of the team is thin. The following big thing is Kyle Crick, a hard-throwing Texas high school who the Giants drafted this year. But it may be too soon to anticipate Crick in the majors by 2014.
Yes, the Giants wish to sign Lincecum to a long-term deal, but those negotiations wont begin until sometime pick up, once the decision on Cain will already have occurred. On the other hand, the Giants know Lincecum will command an AAV within the $25 million range or higher for at least five years, to allow them to slot that figure into their budget for the objective of analyzing the price of a long-term deal with Cain.
What kind of Star Lotulelei Jersey contract is sensible for that Giants and Cain? Over the last six seasons, Cains been worth, on average, $16.5 million. Last season his value increased to $23.4 million. His peripherals are improving every year and hes been healthy and sturdy since wearing a Giants uniform. Hes big and strong (6-3, 230) and has the frame to pitch 200-plus inning every season having to break down.
Cains managed to get clear he wont give the Giants a hometown discount like Jered Weaver gave the Angels in signing his new 5-year/$85 million contract last season and, given his numbers, health insurance and durability, I can tell why. A five-year/$100 million deal will work better for Cain.
Would that work for the Giants? I dont understand why not.
The Giants payroll will hit $130 million this year and theres pointle s to think the team cant sustain that level moving forward. For 2013, San Francisco is locked into $59.Two million, comprised largely of salary for Lincecum and Zito, but also includes raises given to Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Vogelsong and reliever Javier Lopez. Buster Posey will be Eric Wallace Jersey in his first arbitration year, but his salary wont break your budget (a minimum of not pick up).
The big question mark, in terms of dollars, is closer Brian Wilson, who will earn $8.25 million this season. Wilson come in his fourth year of arbitration-eligibility in 2013. Theres been low-level noise of the long-term deal with Wilson. Casting aside Cain to create room to have an expensive Wilson contract makes no sense at all. The Giants produce other choices for a closer in the majors (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo) and a few prospects who could also fill that role down the road.
The only commitments the Giants have for 2014 are $8.25 million to Sandoval, a $7 million buyout of Zito, and also the increasing costs of Posey and Bumgarner. At that time, prospects Gary Brown will be roaming center field and Joe Panik will be handling the keystone, all for the league minimum. Including $25 million for Lincecum doesnt preclude $20 million for Cain, because of the other cost-controlled players.
Why should Cain sign using the Giants for $100 million, if thats offered?
The listing of teams who covers the cost $100 million or more for a pitcher starting in 2013 isnt very long.In addition to the Giants, only seven other teams have payrolls over $100 million with this season: Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Phillies and Cardinals. All of those teams have more dedicated to payroll for 2013 and 2014 than do the Giants. In addition, the Yankees and Red Sox say they will be careful to not exceed the luxury-tax threshold for the following two seasons, given the stiffer penalties under the new collective bargaining agreement. The Angels and Tigers made big free agent signings this offseason and could not have acce s to flexibility for another one in 2012. The Phillies are trying to reach an offer with Hamels and when they are doing, won't need Cain.That leaves the Rangers and the Cardinals. Both po sibilities, to be certain.
Then theres the ballpark factor. Even as Cain moves toward more of a ground-ball/fly-ball balance, hes fly-ball pitcher, and one whos had a very low HR/FB rate. Yankee Stadium, the Ballpark at Arlington (Rangers), and Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) quit much more home runs than league average. Fenway Park is tough for homer Vernon Butler Jersey hitters, but its simple to imagine those fly balls that now die in the outfield at AT&T Park striking the Green Monster for doubles. Comerica Park (Tigers)
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